How the advisory board works
Every number on the farm weather board can be traced to a public, verifiable source. This page walks through the full path — where the data comes from, how we turn it into advice, and what its limits are.
The path, in five steps
From a city name to a farming recommendation
What happens each time the board loads.
Step 1
You choose a hub
Each of the 21 hubs is mapped to verified coordinates and one of six agro-ecological zones — because advice that fits the Shabelle valley can fail on the Bay plateau.
Step 2
Live weather is fetched
Your browser calls Open-Meteo, which blends ECMWF and national weather models (≈10–25 km grid, updated hourly): current conditions, a 7-day forecast and the past 30 days of rainfall.
Step 3
River level is checked
For the 16 hubs on the Juba and Shabelle, the board reads the latest water level measured at the nearest FAO SWALIM river gauge and compares it with SWALIM's own flood-risk levels for that gauge.
Step 4
Calendars are applied
A knowledge base compiled from FAO GIEWS, FAO SWALIM and FSNAU publications supplies each zone's seasons, crops and planting windows. This part is expert-verified by agronomists, not live-generated.
Step 5
Advice is written by rules
Fixed, transparent rules combine the live numbers with the calendar — no black box. Every sentence on the board traces to a rule plus a number you can see.
Example rules — exactly as the engine applies them
If
The current month falls inside the zone's FAO/FSNAU planting window
Then
The planting window shows Open
If
A rainfed hub has under 40 mm of rain in 30 days and expects under 20 mm in the next 7
Then
The board says wait for the rains to establish — planting into dry soil wastes seed
If
The measured river level reaches SWALIM's moderate, high or bank-full level for that gauge
Then
The board says so, by name — and warns downstream hubs when a gauge further upstream is above moderate risk
Expert review
Verified by agronomists, not generated live
The human step in the pipeline.
Live weather and river numbers arrive automatically — but the agronomy behind them does not. The seasonal calendars, crop lists and planting windows for each zone are compiled from FAO GIEWS, FAO SWALIM and FSNAU publications and reviewed by Somali agricultural experts — agronomists, livestock specialists and fisheries advisors — before they enter the rules engine.
The same expert review applies to the operational advisory M-Tacab sends to farmers: every rule and every calendar is checked by people who know that a tip that works in the Shabelle valley can fail on the Bay plateau.
The river-level reading, in detail
The part we are most often asked about
Observed gauge levels, judged against SWALIM's own flood-risk lines.
Measured, not modelled
Until October 2026 this card used a global river model (GloFAS). During the Deyr 2026 rise the model showed the Shabelle falling while the real river at Belet Weyne rose more than three metres — so we replaced it. The board now reads the water level measured each morning at FAO SWALIM's gauges: Belet Weyne, Deefow, Bulo Burti and Jowhar on the Shabelle, Dollow and Luuq on the Juba. Hubs without a gauge show the nearest working gauge upstream, and every hub lists the other gauges along its river.
Deciding what "high" means
A level of 6 metres means nothing without context — near danger at Jowhar, where the banks fill at 5.5 m, but ordinary at Belet Weyne, where they fill at 8.3 m. So the board never sets its own thresholds: it uses SWALIM's moderate, high and bank-full levels for each gauge, the same lines SWALIM and other early-warning services publish.
Six zones, twenty-one hubs
Somalia is not one farming system
Each hub on the board is treated according to its agro-ecological zone — its own seasons, crops and water source.
Riverine — Shabelle & Juba valleys (irrigated)
- Seasons & crops:
- Gu (Apr–Jun) & Deyr (Oct–Dec), plus irrigated dry-season horticulture
- Water:
- Canal and pump irrigation along the Shabelle and Juba rivers
Coastal peri-urban — Banaadir
Market vegetables Oct–Feb
- Seasons & crops:
- Market vegetables Oct–Feb; maize and cowpea in Gu & Deyr
- Water:
- Shallow wells and coastal rains around the capital
Rainfed inter-riverine — the sorghum belt
- Seasons & crops:
- Gu (Apr–Jun) & Deyr (Oct–Dec), fully rainfed
- Water:
- No river — planting follows the rains only
River recession — Hiran (Shabelle)
- Seasons & crops:
- Gu & Deyr grains, plus recession crops planted as flood water recedes
- Water:
- Riverbank moisture left behind after seasonal river peaks
Northwest highlands — Awdal & Maroodi Jeex
- Seasons & crops:
- One long season: Gu (Apr–Jun) into Karan (Jul–Sep), harvest Oct–Nov
- Water:
- Higher-altitude rainfall plus springs and shallow wells
Juba pump irrigation — Gedo
Onions & vegetables Oct–Feb
- Seasons & crops:
- Grains in Gu & Deyr; onions and vegetables Oct–Feb
- Water:
- Motor pumps lifting Juba river water in an otherwise arid zone
What this board is not
Honesty is part of the methodology
Four limits every serious reader should know.
Models, not rain gauges
Somalia's ground-station network is sparse, so weather values are model estimates — excellent for patterns and trends, but a specific field's rainfall can differ from the grid average.
A measurement, not a forecast
Gauge readings show where the river is today, not where it will be. Only six gauges are working (two on the Juba are broken), so most hubs see the nearest gauge upstream. Whether a bank breaks also depends on embankments, siltation and breaches no gauge sees — follow SWALIM and SoDMA flood advisories.
Zone-level, not field-level
Planting windows are compiled at zone level from FAO and FSNAU calendars. Soil, seed variety and local micro-climate can shift the right date on any given farm — which is why the board hedges rather than commands.
A window into the real service
This public board is in English for partners and visitors. Farmers receive the operational advisory in Somali — by USSD, SMS and voice on basic phones — through the M-Tacab platform itself.
Sources
Where the data comes from
- Open-Meteo
live weather, forecasts and 30-day rainfall history (ECMWF and national models)
- FAO SWALIM FRRIMS — river levels
daily observed gauge levels and flood-risk levels for the Shabelle and Juba
- FAO GIEWS — Somalia country brief
seasonal calendar and crop production context
- FAO SWALIM
Somalia water and land information, flood monitoring reference
- FSNAU
seasonal monitors and agricultural methodology
- FAO Crop Calendar
crop planting and harvesting windows
The same engine, on a basic phone.
This board is the public face of the advisory M-Tacab runs for 31,236 active subscribers in Somali — localised, season-aware and delivered over USSD, SMS and voice.